Daily Murders in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The mean number of per-day murders each month in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative data. But, public safety specialists have advised that murder data might not point to enhanced national safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is extremely significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that the previous month the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main pillars of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the murder data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it might hide days when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico is still grappling with severe violence, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst remarked.