Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
