🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days in the past when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of the team's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

Per the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.